Monday, June 19, 2006

Got Kim Chee?

It's been probably a year since I screamed the warnings about N. Korea and it's nuclear program. Apparently, that dog now hunts. With a missile that experts believe is theoretically capable of hitting the West Coast of the US, now fueled and sitting ready on a launch pad in N Korea, the US is faced with an intelligence nightmare. We all know the skeptical nature and admitted failures of US intelligence leading to the Iraq invasion. What do we know about this situation? Given the admitted possession of nuclear weapons by N. Korea, can we afford to assume this missile is but a test? What if...Admittedly it is a big if...There is a warhead on this missile? Are we willing to again take the word of our intelligence analysts; this time down playing capabilities instead of hyping them, that N. Korea has NOT the capabilities of weaponizing an ICBM? A one-off shot at the US disguised as a "test" is not out of the realm of possibility. Suicidal, but not impossible for a deranged madman.

For intelligence to err in this case, would be potentially catastrophic instead of just politically inconvenient. If that missile flies...And it looks as if it might..."The rusty wire that holds the cork that keeps the anger in" could begin to unravel. I've said it before so I'll say it again; A N. Korean conflict would be the posterchild for escalation to a nuclear exchange. Unless we are to sit back and watch the slaughter of thousands of our S. Korean allies in Seoul, the US simply cannot contain and eliminate the N. Korean armed forces fast enough without going nuclear. It's a matter of their numbers, and our stretched resources.

Pay very close attention to this situation. N. Korea, or China via N. Korea, will be the flashpoint of the next global conflagration; it is but a matter of time. When it happens it will make Iraq look like a Sunday bake sale.

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